It is still too early to know all the effects of the player empowerment era in the NBA- where players have much more control over where they play, when they play and many more cascading situations. This empowerment movement is not in isolation, broader cultural and societal norms have shifted and decades old institutions have brought about change. Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) has allowed University and College athletes to receive sponsorship money and the Transfer Portal has allowed athletes to move to different teams at the end of the season without having to sit out a year.
Here is a look at 2019 to 2022 Transfer Portal and the timing of athletes entering the Portal. This is representative of Mens Basketball only;
70% of those athletes that enter the Transfer Portal ultimately end up in a new program. The higher rates entering in March and April coincide with completion of the basketball season and academic calendar year.
Without reading too much into the data - the following chart suggests that a key motivator for entering the portal would be to secure financial aid.
For all that this tells us (and doesn’t) there are still positive undertones that suggest that some of the athletes that are entering the Transfer Portal did not merit financial support at their respective school but they were good enough to merit it at another school.
High School athletes are restricted, somewhat, in transferring schools - but it still happens. There is no such Transfer Portal in Canada - but perhaps there should be. Student Athletes can transfer for a small set of academic reasons but there is not a lot of movement amongst athletes. This staid nature of sports transactions forces athletes to move quickly into prep team circuits. The number of NBA draft picks that have not played US College basketball has continued to rise over the last decade. Athletes are seeing that there is not just one path towards where they want to be.
Impact on parents and athletes is that key decisions are now being forced at younger ages both in terms of development and maturity. The whole system is shifting in front of us in terms of student athletes needing to work harder at younger ages in order to be ready/recognized earlier.
There always has been a requirement to do off season workouts but now those off seasons are really a second showcase for the athletes. Those that take advantage of the off season will become the elite athletes. We might need to start thinking about the off season as the on season whereas league play is just a period of time where we exercise team concepts that might not adapt to the next level. Accepting this, is difficult for coaches, parents and athletes but the shift might have already happened.